Underwater Undergrads: Biggest Busts Among Early One-and-Done Choices

July 13th, 2025 - 9:26

One of the mysteries of the basketball universe is discerning why Rutgers registered a lackluster 15-17 record last season despite fielding roster with two of the top five NBA draft choices (freshmen Dylan Harper/2nd and Ace Bailey/5th). After all, the other four pair of one-and-done selections among the top five picks this century combined to win 86% of their games as freshmen. Consider:

2010 (35-3 Kentucky): John Wall (1st pick overall) and DeMarcus Cousins (5th).
2012 (38-2 Kentucky): Anthony Davis (1st) and Michael Kidd-Gilchrist (2nd).
2014 (25-10 Kansas): Andrew Wiggins (1st) and Joel Embiid (3rd).
2019 (32-6 Duke): Zion Williamson (1st) and RJ Barrett (3rd).

Will it be bust or boom for Harper and Bailey? Should they have stayed in school beyond freshman season perhaps same thing Kentucky guard Reed Sheppard (3rd pick overall in 2024) could have done in order to mature? Sheppard stumbled out of the gate (4.4 ppg, 1.5 rpg, 1.4 apg and 35.1 FG% in rookie year) but deserves multiple campaigns of evaluation before labeled a bust. The year 2020 had the most early one-and-done disappointments with three top five selections failing to compile career scoring averages in double figures. Following is a ranking of the 10 biggest busts among one-and-done players who were top five picks (minimum of four NBA seasons):

Rank One-and-Done Top Five NBA Draft Selection School Draft Status NBA Career Summary
1. Anthony Bennett UNLV 1st in 2013 4.4 ppg, 3.1 rpg, 0.5 apg and 39.2 FG% in four years from 2013-14 through 2016-17
2. Tyrus Thomas Louisiana State 4th in 2006 7.7 ppg, 4.8 rpg and 43.8 FG% in eight years from 2006-07 through 2012-13 and 2014-15
3. James Wiseman Memphis 2nd in 2020 9.1 ppg, 5.6 rpg and 0.7 bpg in first four years (DNP in 2021-22)
4. Michael Kidd-Gilchrist Kentucky 2nd in 2012 8.4 ppg, 5.4 rpg and 1.2 apg in eight years from 2012-13 through 2019-20 (5.5 ppg and 0.8 apg in last two seasons)
5. Josh Jackson Kansas 4th in 2017 11.3 ppg, 4 rpg and 41.6 FG% in five years from 2017-18 through 2021-22 (6.4 ppg and 2.8 rpg in final campaign)
6. Jahlil Okafor Duke 3rd in 2015 10.3 ppg, 4.7 rpg and 0.8 bpg in seven years from 2015-16 through 2020-21 and 2024-25 (7.2 ppg in last five campaigns)
7. Isaac Okoro Auburn 5th in 2020 8.1 ppg, 2.8 rpg and 1.6 apg in first five years
8. Markelle Fultz Washington 1st in 2017 10.4 ppg and 3.2 rpg in first eight years
9. Patrick Williams Florida State 4th in 2020 9.6 ppg and 4.1 rpg in first five years
10. Lonzo Ball UCLA 2nd in 2017 11.4 ppg, 5.5 rpg, 39.8 FG% and 59.9 FT% in first six years (DNP in 2022-23 and 2023-24 before averaging 7.6 ppg and shooting 36.6% from floor last season)